India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
The spurt in rates, caused by the rally in international oil prices, has led to the oil ministry asking the finance ministry for a cut in excise duty in the Union Budget 2018-19, to be presented in Parliament next week.
Party chief Sonia Gandhi has convened the meeting at a time when rising inflation and record international prices of crude oil have created serious concerns before the Congress as also the coalition government
A government official said out that with hardly any economic activity, an immediate duty hike will not be productive and could be announced once the lockdown eases and demand revives.
Among Sensex firms, Maruti zoomed the most by 8.94 per cent. Bajaj Finance rallied over 5 per cent, UltraTech Cement by 3.71 per cent, and Bajaj Finserv by 3.7 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Trent were also among the gainers. However, ITC was the biggest loser, dropping by 1.26 per cent. Eternal, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro also declined.
From the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers. Among the laggards, Kotak Mahindra Bank tanked 4.57 per cent
'The E20 usage accrues the huge benefit to the nation, to the society, to the farmer, to the environment, to the exchequer and all of us'
Nitin Jain, head, capital markets (individual clients) for Edelweiss Financial Services, talks about the uncertain economic environment and what investors could do.
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
International crude oil prices have fallen over 33 per cent from their recent record highs and are projected to fall further towards $90 per barrel with the second hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico not causing as much loss of production as was initially estimated.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
Crude oil prices have more than doubled, pushing up India's import bill and raising fears of a higher current account and fiscal deficit. This will impact corporate earnings.
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
The NSE 50-share Nifty spurted 97.25 points, or 0.92 per cent, to 10,715.50
Inflation data, quarterly earnings and global trends will be the major driving factors for stock markets this week, analysts said. Moreover, the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the equity market trends.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
The price of petrol was hiked to Rs 101.39 a litre in Delhi from Rs 101.19 and to Rs 107.47 per litre in Mumbai, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Diesel rates went to Rs 89.57 a litre in Delhi and Rs 97.21 in Mumbai.
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
Oil prices fell from their two-year highs on Tuesday, as pressure mounted against an immediate attack on Iraq, lessening fears of a possible disruption of oil supplies from the world's eighth-largest exporter.
Investors should be selective in their stock pickings in the oil sector as concerns over subsidies and crude prices loom large.
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
US commercial crude oil stocks were forecast to have risen by 3 million barrels last week
In an event-heavy week, stock investors will track quarterly earnings of several bluechip firms, the likely outcome of ongoing India-US trade talks, and inflation data for market cues, analysts said on Sunday. Moreover, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in equities, they said.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum raised avitation turbine fuel price by Rs 3,949 to Rs 36,252 per kilolitre in Delhi effective Monday midnight, an IOC official said. International crude oil prices have firmed to a seven-month high of $72 per barrel on hopes of demand revival in US.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors and Power Grid were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, ITC, UltraTech Cement and Titan were among the laggards.
From the Sensex constituents, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and Axis Bank were among the major gainers. In contrast, Trent, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the laggards.
Diesel price on Monday was hiked by 25 paise per litre -- the third increase since last week -- and more rate hikes for both diesel and petrol are in the offing in the coming days as international oil prices have soared to a three-year high. The price of diesel was hiked to Rs 89.32 per litre in Delhi and to Rs 96.94 in Mumbai, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. This is the second straight day of increase in diesel prices and the third since September 24 when the state-owned oil firms ended a three-week hiatus in rates.
From the Sensex pack, Eternal, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Trent, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Asian Paints, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, ITC, PowerGrid, Tata Motors Ltd's Commercial Vehicles business, and Bajaj Finserv were the gainers. Infosys, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Titan, UltraTech Cement, Maruti Suzuki India, and Larsen & Toubro were the laggards.
One of the major advantages of buying Iran crude is the additional credit period of 90 days that the country gives to India, compared to 30 days by other countries.
Cooking gas or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price has been raised by Rs 50 per cylinder by distribution companies, Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as the market prepared for a gradual increase of Iranian exports into an already oversupplied market from 2016.
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